When a tip is dressed up as analysis

Nobody sends a beginner a message saying "buy this share so that I can sell mine". What arrives instead looks like a free course. There is a named method, a formula with letters in it, charts with arrows drawn on them, and a worked case where the prediction came true. Only at the end, after you have been taught something, is a group or an adviser mentioned. The teaching is the sales pitch.

pump and dump

A scheme where the organisers buy a share quietly, talk it up until enough outsiders buy and the price rises, then sell into that buying. The outsiders are left holding it as the price falls back to where it started.

short selling

Selling a share you do not own, hoping to buy it back cheaper. In the Indian cash market a retail trader can only do this within a single day — a short position cannot be carried overnight, which matters when a method tells you to hold one for months.

penny share

A share trading at a very low price, usually in a small company that few people trade. A modest amount of buying moves the price a long way, which is exactly what makes it useful to someone who needs a chart to do something.

What the packaging is hiding

• A method with a name and a number. "The third set of formulas" implies there is an established first and second set, and somebody maintaining them. Ask who, and where the others are published.
• Charts annotated after the event. Every point in the example was chosen once the outcome was already on the screen. A method only ever demonstrated backwards has never been tested.
• A borrowed institution. A real, regulated firm gets named, often beside a famous foreign one, as though the two run a joint desk. It is the cheapest way to buy credibility and the easiest claim to check.
• A stated hit rate. "Over 85% success" is not a boast, it is the part a registered adviser is not allowed to say. Nobody who answers to a regulator puts a number like that in writing.

It is worth being precise about why the arithmetic does not help. A formula that turns two prices into a third is doing real arithmetic, and its answer will be correct. That says nothing about whether the third number means anything. You can average your house number and your age: the sum is right and the result is nothing. Correctness and usefulness are separate questions, and a pitch built this way is relying on you to check only the first.